Stock Markets Analysis & Opinion

Bearish Candlesticks Signal Potential for Further Losses for U.S. Indexes


Since indexes returned to breakout support after the early year surge I had thought we could have seen some form of bounce, but the longer markets linger at these levels, the less likely we will see a bounce. Yesterday’s candlesticks across indices definitely leaned more on the bearish side, and if I had expectations, it would be for further losses today. 

While yesterday’s action ranked as firmly bearish with a distribution day on Tuesday, it’s still managing to hold its 200-day MA. The NASDAQ Composite index is outperforming peer indices, but it is losing ground to the S&P 500

COMPQ Daily Chart

The S&P 500 has now come down to its 200-day MA with a confirmed distribution day. Technicals are also net bearish, but as this is the first test of the 200-day MA since the breakthrough it should see some form of bounce off the moving average. How far a bounce can go is another story – but first, we need to see a bounce. 

SPX Daily Chart

The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) has been pinned at breakout support with a second neutral doji in a row. Buyers registered an accumulation day, but the doji neutralizes that buying a little. Technicals are a little mixed, but mostly bullish, as only the MACD is on a ‘sell’ trigger, but is above the bullish zero line. This index has the most room to maneuver to additional support at moving averages. Let’s see if it needs it.

IWM Daily Chart

For today, there is work to do if bulls are to gain traction because current action has the look of a stall in larger decline. If there is a decline – I would be surprised if indices made it all the way back to October lows, or indeed December lows – I want to see a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.  


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