Odds Favor Lower Bond Yields in Months Ahead


Interest rates have risen rather quickly as the Federal Reserve attempts to fight inflation. Will the move be a case of too far, too fast?

Today’s long-term monthly chart of the United States 10-Year treasury bond yield seems to think so.

TNX Monthly Chart

In my humble opinion, the chart below puts the Federal Reserve’s 2.5-year move in perspective — and it seems to be a real outlier of the past 60 years.

As you can see, the 10-year bond yield rallied up to the 23% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1980s high/2020s low (green line). And, while doing so, it recorded a Rate-Of-Change (ROC) that we haven’t seen before: yields are up 560% in 30 months.

That is up 400% more than any 30-month period in the past 60 years. It looks like it’s time for a breather.

Time will tell if the Federal Reserve rose interest rates too fast. Stay tuned.


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