Forex Opinion & Analysis

USD/CAD Faces Volatility as Trend Line Resistance Broken


AUD/USD is slightly lower, as expected to 6696 but unexpectedly reversed to close unchanged, leaving a minor bullish candle in oversold conditions. Holding above 6745/35 signals further gains today targeting 6760 & first resistance at 6770/80. A high for the day is possible in the bear trend. Shorts need stops above 6800.


Failure to hold above 6730 risks a retest of 6700/6695. A break lower can target 6670/60.

NZD/USD made a low for the day 11 pips below 38.2% support at 6150/40 & the pair is recovering towards first resistance at 6190/6200. A high for the day is possible here, but shorts need stops above 6215. A break higher can target 6145/55.


Shorts at 6190/6200 can target 6150/40 for profit taking. Longs need stops below 6125. (Let’s see if we establish a new range from 6150/40 up to 6190/6200). Be ready to sell a break below 6125 to target 6100/6090, probably as far as 6040/30 for profit taking on shorts.

CAD/JPY took a long time to finally reach my target & Fibonacci resistance at 100.55/65. A Doji yesterday suggests we will struggle here in overbought conditions. Shorts need stops above 100.80. A break higher sees 100.65/55 act as support to target 101.25/35.


Shorts at 100.55/65 can target 100.00/9990, perhaps as far as a buying opportunity at 9950/40. Longs need stops below 9920.

USD/JPY longs at buying opportunity at 134.10/133.90 hitting my target of 135.45/55 & 135.80/90 before reaching strong resistance at 136.65/85. What a great run for our longs!!

Shorts need stops above 137.10. A break higher is a buy signal for this week targeting 138.00/20.

Shorts at 136.65/85 can target 136.00, perhaps as far as first support at 135.50/30 for profit taking. Longs need stops below 135.15.

NZD/JPY remains in a tight sideways range – only useful for scalpers. Resistance again at 8450/80. A break above 8510 therefore should be a buy signal.


Shorts at 8450/80 can target 8400/8390 & 8370/60, perhaps we can fall as far as 8310/8290 eventually.

EUR/USD unexpectedly bounced from 1.0534 & beat strong resistance at 1.0575/85. I think today’s resistance is at 1.0590/1.0610. Shorts need stops above 1.0630. A break higher can target 1.0650/60, perhaps as far as 1.0675/85.

Shorts at 1.0590/1.0610 can target 1.0580/75 & 1.0545/35. If we continue lower look for 1.0510/00, perhaps as far as strong support at 1.0470/50. Longs need stops below 1.0430.

USD/CAD  beat 4-month trend line resistance at 1.3570/90 so we must obviously hold above here this week to maintain a buy signal targeting 1.3700.

Longs at 1.3590/70 stop below 1.3550. This was nasty yesterday because we spiked down to 1.3533 and then immediately recovered. USD/CAD remains difficult to read. We have been in a bull trend for 2 weeks but with deep pullbacks making it tough to hold a long position. 

(Which is why I am not adding USDCAD trades to the sheet).

Dollar Index was higher last week as predicted on Monday. By Friday, we hit my first target of 105.15 & should be headed for 105.80 this week, perhaps as far as 106.10/30.

First support at 1.0505/104.95 broke, but we saw a low for the day at strong support at 104.75/60. However, a break lower meets strong support at 104.30/20. Longs need stops below 104.00.

EUR/CAD I am going to wait to see if a head & shoulders form.

A high for the week exactly at the 50-day moving average at 1.4440/50 helps this pattern to develop. A break below support at 1.4230/20 this week will be the sell signal targeting 1.4150 & 1.3980.

GBP/USD bounce from strong support at 1.1960/40 has reached 1.2068. I expect strong resistance at 1.2090/1.2110. Shorts need stops above 1.2130.

Shorts can target 1.2040/20, perhaps as far as strong support at 1.1960/40. Longs need stops below 1.1910. A break below 1.1910 is a sell signal for this week targeting 1.1865/55, perhaps as far as 1.1810/00.



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